The Norwegian economy, measured by the FNI index, is recovering well after the oil downturn, with growth rates above average also in November. So far, the FNI index signals that the growth rates in the 4th quarter will exceed the numbers we saw in the 3rd quarter.
The FNI-index has been updated for November
The FNI (Financial News Index) index, that is constructed by Retriever and the CAMP-centre at BI Norwegian Business School was last updated on November 30, this year. Overall, the FNI-index signals that the growth observed in October increases further in November. With both October and November behind us, the FNI index signals that the growth rate for the 4th quarter will exceed the growth rate observed in the 3rd quarter.
Thus, the Norwegian economy, measured by FNI, is recovering well after the oil downturn, with growth rates above average also in November. The most prominent topics that contribute to increase the index are IT, technology and startup, while topics such as retail and oil service still contribute to pull the FNI-index slightly down.
About the FNI index
Retriever and Centre for Applied Macro and Petroleum economics (CAMP) at BI Norwegian Business School have started a collaboration to construct a business cycle indicator for the Norwegian economy. The new index, called FNI (Financial News Index), measures the development of the Norwegian economy on a daily basis, and will be published monthly. The FNI-index is constructed based on daily news articles, from many sources. The news will be decomposed into different topics. These will, together with GDP, be used to construct a daily business cycle index. The central idea behind the index is simple: To the extent that newspapers provide a relevant description of the economy, the more intensive a given topic is represented in the newspaper at a given point in time, the more likely it is that this topic represents something of importance for the economy's current and future needs and developments.
The average value of the FNI-index is zero. Progressively bigger positive values indicate progressively better-than-average business cycle conditions. Conversely, progressively more negative values indicate progressively worse-than-average conditions.
For more information, see here: https://www.retriever-info.com/fni/
The next FNI update is Friday, January 5, 2018.
Professor Hilde C. Bjørnland, BI Norwegian Business School, +47 464 10 767
Country manager Espen Viskjer, Retriever +47 915 52 765
New paper: "The Shale Oil Boom and the U.S. Economy: Spillovers and Time-Varying Effects" (coauthor Julia Zhulanova), CAMP Working paper 8/2018
The paper "Commodity prices and fiscal policy design: Procyclical despite a rule" (coauthor Leif Anders Thorsrud), is accepted for publicaiton in Journal of Applied Econometrics.
Fiscal Management of Oil Resources in Booms and Busts, Economic Research Forum - Policy Perspecives 23(June) 2018